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ScenarioWizard 4.1 Constructing Consistent Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis Manual Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle 2013

ScenarioWizard 4.1 7 2 Introduction to CIB This chapter offers a short introduction to the basic concepts of CIB. Readers experienced with CI

ScenarioWizard 4.1 97 11 Glossary Analysis structure The set of descriptors and their alternative variants. The set of descriptors and varia

ScenarioWizard 4.1 98 DVL Descriptor-variant-list (analysis structure). Ensemble A system may be represented by more than one cross-impact mat

ScenarioWizard 4.1 99 scriptor and the maximum impact score of the descriptors impact balance. Inconsistency of a scenario Maximum descriptor i

ScenarioWizard 4.1 100 impacts of all rows of the scenario, and switches all descrip-tor variants to the variants of maximum impact score withi

ScenarioWizard 4.1 101 Scenarios with high volume weight are frequently scenarios with a characteristic scenario theme, distinct from all other

ScenarioWizard 4.1 102 Appendix

ScenarioWizard 4.1 103 Appendix 1: The scw file format ScenarioWizard project files (scw-files) are text files. As an alternative to editi

ScenarioWizard 4.1 104 are stored as follows: &A. Government -A1 "Patriots party" -A2 "Prosperity party" -A3 "

ScenarioWizard 4.1 105 an empty character and hyphen at the beginning of each line. The section ends with the character “#“. The next paragraph

ScenarioWizard 4.1 106 0 , 0 , 0 ,-2 , 1 , 1 , 0 , 0 , 0 , 0 , 0 ,-2 , 1 , 1 , 0 , 0 , 0 0 , 0 , 0 , 2 , 1 ,-3 ,-2 ,-1 , 3 ,-2 , 2 , 0 , 0

ScenarioWizard 4.1 8 2.2 The CIB approach The CIB method is a proven cross-impact method which aims for a qualitative systems analysis of m

ScenarioWizard 4.1 107 Appendix 2: Formating csv import-files The menu item File - Load ... import imports a csv-formated cross-impact matrix.

ScenarioWizard 4.1 9 This net can be partially or completely connected. The impact relations may be one-sided or reciprocal. An arrow directed

ScenarioWizard 4.1 10 Cross-Impact Matrix "Somewhereland"A1 "Patriots party"A2 "Prosperity party"A3 "Social

ScenarioWizard 4.1 11 Cross-Impact Matrix "Somewhereland"A1 "Patriots party"A2 "Prosperity party"A3 "Social

ScenarioWizard 4.1 12 In five cases (descriptors A, B, C, E, F), the arrows indicate the maximum score of the descriptor im-pact balance (cf. a

ScenarioWizard 4.1 13 Scenario-g. III"Cosy society"Scenario-g. IV"Protectionism"Scenario-g. VI"Society in crisis"

ScenarioWizard 4.1 14 Cross-Impact Matrix "Somewhereland"A1 "Patriots party"A2 "Prosperity party"A3 "Social

ScenarioWizard 4.1 15 3 Installation System requirements The ScenarioWizard requires the following system features: ∗ A PC with MS Windows

ScenarioWizard 4.1 16 Installation and start Before you install the software, read the End User License Agreement (EULA) in chapter 10! 1.

ZIRIUS Stuttgart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies University of Stuttgart Seidenstr. 36 70174 Stuttgart Germany www.

ScenarioWizard 4.1 17 4 Getting started with ScenarioWizard 4.1 Overview A qualitative system analysis using ScenarioWizard is conducted b

ScenarioWizard 4.1 18 Fig. 4-1: The basic functions of ScenarioWizard can be found on the toolbar. 4.2 A simple analysis -

ScenarioWizard 4.1 19 matrix (cim) shall be co-edited, because a modification of the analysis structure can request an ap-propriate restructuri

ScenarioWizard 4.1 20 is not necessary to enter the data manually because the data of the exercise „Somewhereland“ are provided by the loaded p

ScenarioWizard 4.1 21 Step 3: Calculation of the consistent scenarios Now all necessary data are provided and the evaluation of the cross-impac

ScenarioWizard 4.1 22 field between the buttons “Tableau” and “IB” and press “Rp” to generate a report on the first sce-nario of the evaluation

ScenarioWizard 4.1 23 5 Generating and handling a project file Since program version 4 all input data necessary for conducting a CIB analysis

ScenarioWizard 4.1 24 Once a new project file has been loaded, it can be used for modification and evaluation of the in-cluded data. The menu i

ScenarioWizard 4.1 25 If needed, click a variant name and then the “Insert” button in order to expand a row and to gener-ate a new cell for a f

ScenarioWizard 4.1 26 A double click on any point of the structure editor outside of the cell array generates a default set of descriptor and v

This version of ScenarioWizard is dedicated to Ullrich Lorenz who inspires our CIB research by sound suggestions, critical questions and cr

ScenarioWizard 4.1 27 Fig. 5-3: The comment window. In this example, a comment on the descriptor “A. Government” is displayed. 5.5 Assig

ScenarioWizard 4.1 28 Fig. 5-4: A color-coded analysis structure. 5.6 Editing an analysis structure The structure editor ca

ScenarioWizard 4.1 29 edited, the cross-impact data of this descriptor are also deleted. The following descriptors move up-wards, in order to p

ScenarioWizard 4.1 30 5.7 Displaying and editing cross-impact data using the matrix editor The cross-impact matrix (cim) contains the cross-i

ScenarioWizard 4.1 31 Fig. 5-5: An empty matrix editor, ready for the input of cross-impact data. Cross-impact values are usu

ScenarioWizard 4.1 32 Tab. 5-1: The interpretation of cross-impact judgements. Consider the direct influence of state x on state y. +3: stro

ScenarioWizard 4.1 33 Printing Use the “Print“ button to request a printer selection window and a print-out of the cross-impact ma-trix. For a

ScenarioWizard 4.1 34 its close button. Double quotation marks (") are not permitted in comments and are automatically converted into sin

ScenarioWizard 4.1 35 The menu item Edit - Show comments produces a compilation of all comments of the project. The compilation can be transf

ScenarioWizard 4.1 36 Fig. 5-8: The section editor displaying the judgement section “B. Foreign policy impacts on A. Gov-ernmen

ScenarioWizard 4.1 1 Contents 1 Preface ...

ScenarioWizard 4.1 37 dows. Rather use the structure editor (chapter 5.4) or the matrix editor (chapter 5.8) to edit the de-scriptor comments.

ScenarioWizard 4.1 38 Fig. 5-10: The section editor with activated extensions „Descriptor comments“ and “Navigator”. The array buttons benea

ScenarioWizard 4.1 39 5.10 Standardization Standardization means that the sum of each judgement group (one line within a judgement section) sh

ScenarioWizard 4.1 40 with rounded results may however, as a consequence of rounding, change the solution set of a cross-impact matrix.

ScenarioWizard 4.1 41 Fig. 5-12: A cross-impact matrix (left) and the transposed matrix (right). In ensemble-mode (see chapter 6.7) all cross

ScenarioWizard 4.1 42 5.14 Exporting a cross-impact matrix The menu item File - Save ... export exports the current cross-impact matrix into

ScenarioWizard 4.1 43 5.15 Importing a cross-impact matrix The menu item File - Load ... import imports a csv-formated cross-impact. The m

ScenarioWizard 4.1 44 and for storing the cross-impact data (.cim files). In order to preserve the usability of older data stocks ScenarioWiza

ScenarioWizard 4.1 45 6 Evaluating a cross-impact matrix Having specified the descriptor state list and the cross-impact data, the evaluation

ScenarioWizard 4.1 46 Fig. 6-1: System-grid of „Somewhereland“. All descriptors are plotted in the diagram using their short na

ScenarioWizard 4.1 2 6.10 Influence profile ...

ScenarioWizard 4.1 47 6.2 Analysing the impact balances of a scenario The heart of the CIB method is the assessment of the internal consisten

ScenarioWizard 4.1 48 z = [ A2 B1 C3 D1 E1 F1 ], i.e.: Government: "Prosperity party", foreign policy: cooperation, economy: dynamic

ScenarioWizard 4.1 49 Fig. 6-3: Impact diagram of descriptor variant „E. Social value: meritocratic“ in scenario [ A2 B1 C3 D1 E1 F1

ScenarioWizard 4.1 50 Fig. 6-4 (see below for the “Succession protocol”). The window is now ready for the next step. Fig. 6-4: The window “I

ScenarioWizard 4.1 51 Protocol The button “Protocol“ opens a listing of the succession. The scenarios of the succession are printed in lines u

ScenarioWizard 4.1 52 The arrows above the balances refer to the selected descriptor variants. This type of depiction is useful for the analys

ScenarioWizard 4.1 53 Scenario overview The scenario under consideration is documented in the section “Scenario overview” by listing the assu

ScenarioWizard 4.1 54 In case of an inconsistent descriptor (marked in red in the section “Scenario overview”), the pros-and-cons list of the

ScenarioWizard 4.1 55 Fig. 6-8: Continuation of Fig. 6-7: Proving the consistency of a scenario assumption by showing the i

ScenarioWizard 4.1 56 Fig. 6-9: The sections „Firmness of scenario assumptions“ and „Conclusions“ of an automatic sce-nar

ScenarioWizard 4.1 3 List of figures Fig. 2-1: A simple impact network ...

ScenarioWizard 4.1 57 with 20 descriptors) can take several minutes to hours, depending on the performance of the com-puter. Once the calculati

ScenarioWizard 4.1 58 Fig. 6-10: The evaluation protocol for the consistent scenario calculation. The window contains the f

ScenarioWizard 4.1 59 Fig. 6-11: Options for the calculation of variant frequencies. Use this window to specify whether in calculating

ScenarioWizard 4.1 60 Fig. 6-12: Text output of the variant frequencies in the evaluation protocol. Fig. 6-13: Bar chart of the

ScenarioWizard 4.1 61 The option “F.differences“ (Frequency differences) requires that a calculation with the option “Fre-quencies” has already

ScenarioWizard 4.1 62 Print Click on the “Print“ button to open a printer selection window and to send the displayed evaluation protocol to the

ScenarioWizard 4.1 63 Click the button "Txt" to open a window showing the full text representation of the selected sce-nario. This fu

ScenarioWizard 4.1 64 Fig. 6-15: Unsorted tableau of Somewhereland’s consistent scenarios. Fig. 6-16: Arranged tableau of Somewhereland’s co

ScenarioWizard 4.1 65 The combo box “Move descriptor” and the up/down arrow buttons can be used to change the sort-ing of the descriptors. E.g.

ScenarioWizard 4.1 66 Fig. 6-17: The window for the selection of variants. In Fig. 6-17 one state was selected (A. Govern

ScenarioWizard 4.1 4 Fig. 6-5: Html export of Fig. 6-4. ...

ScenarioWizard 4.1 67 Filter variants Select the option „Filter“ at the bottom of the window in order to filter the selected variants instead o

ScenarioWizard 4.1 68 Fig. 6-18: The file selection window for the compilation of an ensemble. After the selection of a folder, all

ScenarioWizard 4.1 69 Ensemble sum The menu item Edit - Ensemble sum calculates the sum of the cross-impacts of all ensemble members for each c

ScenarioWizard 4.1 70 Ensemble scenarios Being in the ensemble mode, the menu item Analyse - Consistent Scenarios or the button on the toolbar

ScenarioWizard 4.1 71 Fig. 6-20: The evaluation protocol of the menu item Analyse - Ensemble Solutions. - The member number of

ScenarioWizard 4.1 72 As with ordinary evaluation protocols, ensemble evaluation protocols can be printed, solution lists can be saved, and des

ScenarioWizard 4.1 73 If the number of combinations of a matrix (the product of the number of states of all descriptors) exceeds 2.131.304.349

ScenarioWizard 4.1 74 The bias statistics indicate how often a descriptor variant reaches the maximum impact score when all possible scenarios

ScenarioWizard 4.1 75 The menu item Analyse - Statistics is available only if an analysis structure and a cross-impact matrix have already been

ScenarioWizard 4.1 76 The correlation table indicates that “F. Social values: meritocratic” and “D. Distribution of wealth: balanced” rarely oc

ScenarioWizard 4.1 5 1 Preface The ScenarioWizard is designed for applying cross-impact balance analysis (CIB), a method of qualita-tive sys

ScenarioWizard 4.1 77 Correlation coefficients are significant rather in cases of medium and large scenario sets. Correlation coefficients of s

ScenarioWizard 4.1 78 Fig. 6-25: The influence profiles of the „Somewhereland“ descriptor variants. Fig.

ScenarioWizard 4.1 79 7 Options Several options for the execution of CIB evaluations and for the display of data are available. Appro-priate

ScenarioWizard 4.1 80 - “Weak consistency“: A scenario is judged to be consistent, if every state owns a positive or zero impact score. Accord

ScenarioWizard 4.1 81 weights. Dependent on the number of scenarios, the second run may require considerably less or considerably more calculat

ScenarioWizard 4.1 82 - “Complete“ (defaut setting): A complete exploration of all possible scenarios will be per-formed. All solutions of a m

ScenarioWizard 4.1 83 tion should be interpreted with care; depending on the nature of the descriptors they are not in every case meaningful. H

ScenarioWizard 4.1 84 7.2 Output options The menu item Options - Output Options (or the button on the toolbar) opens the window shown in Fig

ScenarioWizard 4.1 85 - “Short name“: Each scenario is printed as a list of its descriptors and their selected states. The descriptors are pri

ScenarioWizard 4.1 86 Live change of output options The window “Output options” can be opened while the evaluation protocol is still open. Set

ScenarioWizard 4.1 6 definitions, the cross-impact matrix and comments on the cross-impacts), and how to modify and store it. Chapter 6 deals

ScenarioWizard 4.1 87 by assigning more than one (max. three) signs to a cell. Promoting impacts are printed in green, hin-dering impacts in re

ScenarioWizard 4.1 88 the criterion of weak consistency. A descriptor variant characterized by [-] in the balance row has a negative impact sum

ScenarioWizard 4.1 89 duces the amount of necessary data and simplifies the processes of data procurement and data qual-ity management. The wi

ScenarioWizard 4.1 90 B - + A - +1 -1 + -1 +1 - The option „Polar-3“ is similar to option „Polar-2“. However, it is assumed that an addit

ScenarioWizard 4.1 91 Step 2: Select the requested descriptor type in the window Options - Descriptor type. Options incom-patible with the anal

ScenarioWizard 4.1 92 Each type of data reset is confined to ScenarioWizard’s workspace, however. All data already saved in project files keep

ScenarioWizard 4.1 93 8 Limitations The limitations for the size of ScenarioWizard 4.1 data structures are as follows: • Not more than 199 d

ScenarioWizard 4.1 94 9 Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank Dr. Diethard Schade for his guidance and support during the first devel-op

ScenarioWizard 4.1 95 10 End User Licence Agreement (EULA) Herein "AUTHOR" shall refer to the copyright owner stated below, "P

ScenarioWizard 4.1 96 You may not "bundle" said AUTHOR's PRODUCT and SERVICES with ANY product and/or service that has not been